Destiny 2

Theory: the exotics that we can get from a legendary lost sector are not random…

destiny2 8 - Theory: the exotics that we can get from a legendary lost sector are not random...
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…but the pool of obtainable exotics is.

I don't know if this is a known behavior or if somebody already posted about this, but my theory is that at each reset the pool of obtainable exotics from legendary LS is chosen. I still don't know if this is account based or not, maybe with more findings from other users we can figure this out.

During this week I've grinded the legendary LS for arms and chest and these were my findings:

Veles Labyrinth – Arms – 6h

ExoticCount
Necrotic grip4
Claws of Ahamkara2
Aeon Soul3
Winter's Guile4

Exodus Garden 2A – Arms – 4h

ExoticCount
Necrotic Grip3
Getaway Artist2
Contraverse Hold2
Winter's Guile3

Veles Labyrinth – Chest – 5h

ExoticCount
Sanguine Alchemy4
Starfire Protocol3
Stormdancer's Brace2
Wings of Sacred Dawn1

See where I'm going with this? Currently there are 9 arm exotics and 7 chest exotics for warlocks, if the probability is the same for all exotics to drop, then there would've been more "diversity" in the group of items I got. Instead, I always got the same 4 arms over and over and the same 2 chests over and over. Let's introduce some numbers, taking the first run of Veles Labyrinth as an example.

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Given that the numer of arm exotics is 9 and assuming that each exotic has the same probability to drop, we can say that the probability of a specific arm exotic to drop is 1 out of 9 (0.11 rounded or 11%, to simplify).

If we take in account the data from my findings, we find a different situation. Out of 14 exotics being dropped, there were 5 exotic that never came up. The probability of getting at least one of these exotics in 14 drops can be obtained by calculating the probability of never getting one of these and then calculating its complementary. In this case, we'd have 0.45 to the power of 14, resulting in 0.00001396288. It's complementary would be 0.99998603712, a probability really close to 1. To put it in a few words: an almost certain event. Never certain nonetheless, of course. But if we consider that the exotics that never dropped are 5, the probability trivially increases.

To sum it up: based on the number of my findings, I believe that each time the Legendary LS changes, a new pool of available exotics to drop is determined.

If somebody can contribute to whether confirm or debunk this theory with data, it'll be greatly appreciated.

Edit: added information and calculations for clarity.

Edit 2: corrected a calculus mistake (I'm sleep deprived, sorry guys, the result doesn't change) and I updated the findings on the last table

Source: Original link


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