Before I get started, I fully realize that we don't know the weightings behind the scenes that Bungie uses to determine drops. Newer loot has a higher chance to drop than older loot. The numbers I'm about to show ignore that as there is no way of knowing the exact ratio. Either way, I think what I'm showing demonstrates my point very well.
World loot should absolutely be removed from Ritual vendors, meaning Zavala, Shaxx, and Drifter. It was an understandable change during Season of Arrivals because the Tower vendors had not seen a loot refresh in some time. Now that all Tower vendors have a new armor set, three new weapons with 12 perks in each column, and a commitment by Bungie to update this annually – it's time to revert the world loot in vendor loot pools change.
Let's show what the total loot pool consist of and the chances of receiving a weapon you want with the perks you want. Bottom Dollar is what I used as an example since it's currently the most sought after vendor weapon. I'd bet my bottom dollar that you'll never get the exact roll you want on this weapon.
- Total Armor Pieces Available from Vendor Rank Up Package (per class)
- 5 of which is the vendor's own armor set
- Total Weapons Available from Vendor Rank Up Package
- 3 of which are new weapons unique to that vendor
|Chance of Dropping||Total Perk Combinations||Chance of Wanted Perk Combination||Chance of Wanted Roll|
The weapons chance of dropping is a simple division not taking in account the unknown weighting Bungie uses. Combing all world drop armor and weapons as well as vendor armor and weapons lands us at a grand total of 79 possible drops. That is a 1.27% chance for the Bottom Dollar to drop for you.
Total perk combinations takes into account masterworks, barrel options, magazine options, and the final two column options. Barrel and magazine option totals were divided in half to account for 2 choices being present on each of those columns. There is a total 12 perks on each of the last two columns. Multiplying all column totals together gets us the 9072 total perk combinations or a .01% chance.
Taking the chance of dropping and chance of wanted perks and multiplying them together lands us at our final percentage, a .0001% chance of getting the exact roll you want. Once again, this doesn't take Bungie's internal weighting into consideration since it is unknown. Even with some weighting going on to skew the drops, the odds are extremely against you. This is why I propose vendors go back to their original system of dropping only their items. Doing the numbers again with this system:
- Total Armor Pieces Available from Vendor
- Total Weapons Available from Vendor
|Chance of Dropping||Chance of Wanted Perk Combination||Chance of Wanted Roll|
Under this system, the chance of get the exact weapon you want, e.g., Bottom Dollar, goes up to 12.5%. The chance of getting your own personal Bottom Dollar god roll is still extremely low at .001%, but that's a result of the large number of perk combinations available on these guns, not the total loot pool. This number goes up significantly as you start to care less and less about specific combinations, i.e., only concerning yourself with the last two columns gives you 144 combinations instead of 9072. There's a reason why perk for perk god rolls are extremely rare, the numbers don't lie.
In closing, removing world loot drops from ritual vendors would be a huge boon to the game. The loot treadmill is there even with the world loot removed, mostly due to the large perk combinations available on these new weapons. Going from a 1.27% chance of a Bottom Dollar dropping to a 12.5% chance would make things so much more enjoyable. Playing playlist activities just to get my 1200th Gnawing Hunger or Cold Denial is frustrating, especially when new loot has been added. Frustrating loot leads to a frustrating play session. A frustrating play session leads to a frustrating experience with the game. Reserve world loot for legendary engram drops out in the world, normal prime engrams, and the Gunsmith. They no longer have a place in ritual vendor loot tables.
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