Chances to pack a single player of certain ratings

FIFA19 10 - Chances to pack a single player of certain ratings

I think it would be quite interesting to calculate the pack chances down to a single rare gold player (table at the end of the posts). Means: when you are about to pack a rare gold player, these are the chances that they have x+ rating.

Explanation of values:

No. rares – Number of rares of the pack

Rating – Minimum rating which refers to Chance

Chance – Chance to pack at least one player of this or a higher rating (source: store)

chance/card – chance that a single card has at least the Rating of the row


chance/card = 1-(1-Chance)^(1/number of rares)


1-chance/card^number of rares = 1-chance


For every single rare gold player you pull out of any pack, these are the calculated chances.

82+ -> 22,09%

86+ -> 1,18%

87+ -> 0,71%

88+ -> 0,46%


90+ -> 0,12%

Minor notes:

  • Values are from ultimate pack, jumbo rare player pack, rare players pack, prime players pack and premium players pack.
  • Data is only from players only packs, which contain always the same number of players. The 82 value counts only for rare only packs, because it does not say anything about nonrares, which can also be 82 rated.
  • The chances of bigger packs are slightly higher, because you can't pack the same 75 rated player twice in one pack. So a packed player is out of choice for further pulls of the same pack.
  • Chances can vary because the set of packable players varies.

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