FIFA 19

FIFA 19 FUTmas Value Analysis and Upgrade Comparison to 18

FIFA19 3 - FIFA 19 FUTmas Value Analysis and Upgrade Comparison to 18

This comparison will look at the increase of in-game stats for the cost of completing the SBC minus the cost of that player's NIF. I pulled NIF costs from the day before their SBCs came out in order to limit the effect of market fluctuations. I also went back and looked up the FUTmas upgrades from FIFA 18 to compare how many in-game stats they gained on average per points in face stat increased in order to normalize upgrades of high and low rated players.

Name Face Increase Cost (SBC – NIF) + In-game stats IGS/1k coins IGS/Face
Seydou Doumbia 5 17k 171 10.06 34.2
Jordan Lukaku 4 19k 146 7.68 36.5
Santiago Arias 4 19k 139 7.32 34.8
Lucas Torreira 4 30k 138 4.6 34.5
Patrick van Aanholt 6 40k 170 4.25 28.3
Denis Zakaria 4 28k 119 4.25 29.75
Bruma 3 29k 86 2.97 28.7
Marcelo Saracchi 6 64k 182 2.84 30.3
Emiliano Rigoni 4 51k 121 2.37 30.25
Sami Khedira 2 35k 46 1.31 23
Andres Iniesta 1 26k 32 1.23 32
Leon Bailey 2 55 67 1.22 33.5
Mario Balotelli 2 58 67 1.16 33.5
Manuel Akanji 4 100 115 1.15 28.75
Daniel Wass 2 57 62 1.09 31
Mateo Kovacic 2 74 72 0.973 36
Wilfried Zaha 2 80 69 0.863 34.5
Alejandro Gomez 2 80 66 0.825 33
Antonio Valencia 2 84 61 0.726 30.5
Isco 2 58 41 0.707 20.5
Marcus Rashford 3 133 90 0.677 30
Jose Callejon 2 110 67 0.609 33.5
Dele Alli 2 110 65 0.591 32.5
Thiago Silva 2 90 51 0.567 25.5
Coutinho 2 105 48 0.457 24
Rodrigo 2 117 53 0.453 26.5
Blaise Matuidi 2 129 54 0.419 27
Jérôme Boateng 2 140 50 0.357 25
Roberto Firmino 2 146 50 0.342 25
Heung Min Son 2 199 65 0.327 32.5
Alexandre Lacazette 2 175 47 0.269 23.5
Kevin De Bruyne 2 240 44 0.183 22

The most obvious conclusion from this chart is that value isn't linear. More expensive players cost more per in-game stat to upgrade, which makes sense because demand is most strongly concentrated around highly rated cards. What's interesting is that Premier League players are being charged a premium, returning far less in-game stats per 1,000 coins spent than their counterparts in other leagues. The appalling cost of De Bruyne's SBC is what motivated me to do this research, but what stands out is that Lacazette's cost to gain ratio is shockingly bad for someone who is not close to an end-game player. FUTmas De Bruyne is extremely bad value, but at least he will remain usable throughout the remainder of the game. For that reason I would single out FUTmas Lacazette as the worst value out of this promotion. The community was also correct about Akanji being unusually expensive, as he returned significantly less value against cost than any other player who increased their face rating by at least four, but he looks much better when compared to the value of higher rated players. Meanwhile Sami Khedira was arguably the best value of the high rated cards.

Read:  Realistic expectation from 25 million coins worth of Pack value?

I would have liked to compare the cost per gain of FUTmas in FIFA 19 to FUTmas in FIFA 18 but I don't know a reliable way to find the cost of each SBC at the time they were released a year ago. What I did instead was to look up the increase of in-game stats for FIFA 18 FUTmas cards compared to the increase in face rating and what I found is that as a group the FIFA 18 FUTmas cards averaged +43.05 in-game stats for every face stat. Meanwhile the FIFA 19 FUTmas cards averaged +30.16 in-game stats for every face stat. Assuming that the costs per face upgrade were similar last year, that would give FIFA 18 FUTmas SBCs 42.7% better value. This is roughly consistent with what I have observed by comparing in-form upgrades in FIFA 19 with FIFA 18, as they have received about ~50% less in-game stats per face stat this year. So we're getting significantly less value from special cards in FIFA 19 than we did in FIFA 18.

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