My theory on pack weight is that rarer players you receive from packs is based on the market price of the player. I’ll explain.
The most expensive base gold 84 card right now is Kyle Walker at 39k and the cheapest is Hradecky at 2.6k (PS Prices) How often do you pack Kyle Walker compared to Hradecky and other shitty players 84 rated players. Similarly, players like Ederson and Verratti are much more common 86 pulls than Varane (the most expensive at the moment).
My theory is that pack weight is dynamic and automatically generates new odds based on prices of players. I believe that the odds stated in the store are correct at the tine they are published, but they change constantly and aren’t an accurate representation of pack weight.
Lastly, a lot of streamers and people on this subreddit claim that pack weight during promos drops off a few days after the promo. This could be attributed to all the cards having a base pull percentage on release and going down because once those cards are on the market, they are expensive and therefore the drop rate decreases.
Thank you for reading my theory. If anybody has any questions and wants to debate it, comment below and I’d love to hear what people think!
Edit: I know it’s obvious that some cards are rarer than others even if they are the same rating. My point is that EA try to promote that they drop the same by adding shitty probabilities that show almost nothing and group drop rate percentages by rating. Also I’m trying to explain that I think the market price itself dictates drop rate and that it isn’t completely manual by EA and that it can change. So if my theory were true, if everyone on FUT suddenly listed Kyle walker at 5k instead of at 39k, his drop rate would increase to the drop rate of other 84s at this price. Obviously everyone wouldnt list him at this price btw.
In summation, my point isn’t that some cards are rarer than others even if they are the same rating, it’s that the market price dictates the drop rate
Edit 2: That link is to EA’s website where they display how pack probabilities work. If you read through it, it says how they don’t actually know the pack weight and they run simulations to test it. The quote below is that statement. If EA themselves don’t know pack weight directly, there needs to be some other mechanism in place to determine the weight
https://www.ea.com/games/fifa/fifa-19/news/fifa-19-pack-probabilities “Pack probabilities in FIFA 19 are calculated by simulating the opening of a very large number of packs, for each pack in the Store. The number of packs opened in a simulation varies based on rarity, but it will always be enough to be statistically valid. We then re-run this process with every content update.”
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