I read some posts yesterday discussing the absurd low pack probabilities of packing a CL TOTGS player. I want to turn these numbers around showing how many packs your need to buy in order to have a 99.99% probability of getting at least 1 CL TOTGS player. I will display these number in a table below.
Ever since EA started disclosing the pack probabilities I've been thinking that the majority of FIFA players don't understand fully what they imply. The pack probabilities are described as something like "The minimum probability of getting one player of the OVR range or Described Category in this pack". It is important to remember that opening a pack is an independent event, that is, the the outcome of your first pack has no influence on the outcome of your second pack.
At the time of writing this post, I'm able to buy an "Ultimate Pack" for the small price of 125,000 Coins or 2,500 FifaPoints, approximately 25€/22£/28$. EA provides the following pack probabilities:
|Gold 75+ Player||100%|
|Gold 82+ Player||99%|
|Gold 90+ Player||3.4%|
|UEFA EL TOTGS Player||9.5%|
|UEFA CL TOTGS Player||1.9%|
How many "Ultimate Packs" do I then need to buy in order to get one of those juicy CL TOTGS Players? Can I just say 100%/1.9% = roughly 53 packs? No.
In order to calculate the probability we need to use the following formula: Log(1-q)/Log(1-p) where q = Desired probability of packing a CL TOTGS Player and p = Probability of packing a CL TOTGS Player.
The first column in the table below shows the probability of packing the player, second column shows how many packs I need to buy for this probability and the last two columns displays the associated cost:
|Probability of Packing a CL TOTGS Player||Number of Packs Needed||Monetary Cost in € / £ / $||Coin Cost|
|99.99%||480.13||~ 12003 / 10562 / 13443||~60 million|
|99%||240.07||~ 6001 / 5281 / 6721||~30 million|
|95%||156.17||~ 3904 / 3435 / 4372||~19.5 million|
|90%||120.03||~ 3000 / 2640 / 3361||~15 million|
|80%||83.9||~ 2098 / 1846 / 2349||~10.5 million|
|70%||62.76||~ 1569 / 1381 / 1757||~7.8 million|
|60%||47.77||~ 1194 / 1051 / 1337||~6 million|
|50%||36.13||~ 903 / 795 / 1012||~4.5 million|
|40%||26.63||~ 666 / 586 / 746||~3.3 million|
|30%||18.59||~ 465 / 409 / 521||~2.3 million|
|20%||11.63||~ 291 / 256 / 326||~1.5 million|
|10%||5.49||~ 137 / 121 / 154||~686.000|
|5%||2.67||~ 67 / 59 / 75||~334.000|
|1.9%||1||25 / 22 / 28||125.000|
EA have capped the number of packs I'm able to buy at 6. This corresponds to a ~10% chance of packing a CL TOTGS Player – and an associated cost of either 150€ or 750.000 Coins. If I want a CL TOTGS Player I believe I'm better off buying it from the transfer market.
The above table/analysis w/e can be replicated for any type of pack or promo using the formula and the provided pack probabilities. Let me know what you think.
© Post "Table summarizing probability of packing 1 CL TOTGS Player, number of packs needed to pack 1 and the associated cost" for game FIFA 19.
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