Alot of people including myself wonder what would happen if Arthur didn't get TB. Would he have steered Dutch right? Would he have helped John and his family? Maybe the gang would've survive if he wasn't sick?. I came up with a theory on what would happen if Mr. Downes didn't spit on our Boah.
The events of RDR2 wouldn't have changed much. At the start of the game up until chapter 6, Arthur is a violent man who cares only about his gang since it is the only thing he has close to family. At the start of the game, the way Arthur sees things is completly different than the way he sees the world after getting sick. It is because of the fact that he is dying. If it weren't for that, Arthur wouldn't have seen the wrong doings of Dutch. Micah still would've corrupted Dutch and the gang would eventually fall apart.
But when Arthur realizes that Micah is the rat, he heads on back to camp to tell Dutch (just like the final mission). After that, the pinkertons ambush beaver hollow then Arthur and John escape to end up on the same place Arthur has to choose to either go and help John or to go back for the money. If Arthur wasn't sick, he probably would've went back for the money even though John and Arthur became very close in chapter 6. Meanwhile Micah also heads back to get the money and then the two face off in a fist fight, Arthur would eventually beat Micah and as he is about to kill him Dutch intervines the fight and telling them both to stop. While the pinkertons are getting closer, Dutch runs away. Arthur grabs the money and also manages to escape in time and disappears from the pinkerton's radar. Then in 1907, when John gets word of Micah hiding in the mountains he heads up, finishes Micah.
Now it is 1911 (The events of Red Dead Redemption). John's family is taken by the FBI and he is forced to hunt down is former brothers in arms. John tracks down Bill, Javier and Dutch, deals with them and speaks to Ross demanding him to free his family now that the job is done. But the FBI finds out John has been in contact with Arthur, so Ross tells John that there is still one man left, that man is Arthur Morgan. John is hesitant at first but for the sake of his family, he agrees to track down Arthur. Ross then let's Marston's family stay at beecher's hope but threatens John that if he doesn't bring down Arthur, they will kidnap his family again. John then writes a letter to Arthur inviting him to beacher's hope. After a few weeks, Arthur shows up. John and his family are excited to meet with Arthur after a long time.
John's family thinks that Arthur is here to stay and will leave shortly. Later on, John and Arthur are alone talking about their days in the gang. John tells Arthur about Bill and Javier, he later tells Arthur that Dutch commited suicide infront of him not long ago. John explains to Arthur about the situation he is in and that he has no other choice but to bring him in. Arthur, looks at John with disgust "You're no better than Micah!" says Arthur to John. "I don't have a choice brother" replies John. The two then slowly start backing away while looking at each other, Arthur puts his hand on his revolver and so does John, the two prepare for a duel infront of a terrified Abigail. Just as they are about to draw on eachother, they hear a distant shot and several FBI agents ambushing beecher's hope.
Arthur and John fight off the FBI while John's family escape. Meanwhile Edgar Ross gets shot during the battle, Arthur and John successfully defend beecher's hope. Arthur goes to Ross who is barely alive, "This is for them" Arthur shoots Edgar Ross in the head. John, his family and Arthur walk away from beecher's hope and dissapearing with the blackwater money and the money Arthur had from Dutch's chest. The end.
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